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Porth, Newquay, Cornwall. UK
Updated:  12/11/2025 08:00 
 


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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Current Space Weather Overview

Graphs Showing Solar X-Ray & Solar Proton Flux

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025
Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14
00-03UT5.00 (G1)6.67 (G3)4.67 (G1)
03-06UT7.33 (G3)6.33 (G2)4.00
06-09UT6.00 (G2)6.00 (G2)3.33
09-12UT4.67 (G1)4.67 (G1)3.67
12-15UT4.334.003.33
15-18UT8.00 (G4)3.333.00
18-21UT7.67 (G4)4.333.00
21-00UT7.00 (G3)4.67 (G1)3.33

Rationale: CME activity from 09-11 Nov is likely to cause G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) levels on 12 Nov, G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 13 Nov and G1 (Minor) levels early on 14 Nov.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025
Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14
S1 or greater99%75%55%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 13 Nov, with S2 levels possible through 12 Nov. Further enhancements are possible with the arrival of the 09-11 Nov CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 11 2025 1004 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025
Nov 12Nov 13Nov 14
R1-R285%85%85%
R3 or greater55%55%55%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with further R3 (Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 171
Click for time-lapse image of the sun 		SOHO EIT 195
SOHO EIT 195 image of the sun 		SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun 		SOHO EIT 304
SOHO EIT 304 image of the sun
 
SDO/HMI Continuum
SDO/HMI Continuum Image of the Sun 		SDO/HMI Magnetogram
Latest SDO/HMI Magnetogram image of the Sun 		LASCO C2
Latest LASCO C2 image of the Sun 		LASCO C3
Latest LASCO C3 image of the Sun
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Wind


Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast.
WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. Solar disturbances have long been known to disrupt communications, wreak havoc with geomagnetic systems, and to pose dangers for satellite operations.

Solar Cycle




The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. The forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Prediction Panel has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.


Auroral Activity Forecast


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map 		Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Radio Communications Impact

D-Region Absorption

D-Region Absorption Prediction
Latest D-Region Absorption Prediction Model
The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.

VHF and HF Band Conditions





Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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