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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks

From NOAA

RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 232329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Nassau,
Bahamas, and on Tropical Storm Lee, located over the central
Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...LEE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 23
 the center of Lee was located near 32.1, -49.8
 with movement NNW at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

...LEE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 49.8W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 49.8 West. Lee is moving
toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow turn toward
the north and northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn
toward the east and east-southeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee
could be near hurricane strength by early next week.

Lee remains a small tropical cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 232035
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  49.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  49.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  49.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 32.3N  49.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.2N  48.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.8N  48.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.1N  48.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.5N  49.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N  51.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N  49.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

Compact Lee continues to produce a small cluster of central deep
convection, along with several small curved bands in all quadrants.
Ship LAOX5 traversed through the center of Lee around 1400Z, and at
1500Z reported a north wind of 30 kt about 20 nmi west of the
center. Based on that ship observation, along with satellite
intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, the
initial intensity remains at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a slow drift toward the north-northwest or
335/03 kt. The global and regional models have come into much
better agreement on this cycle and now show a much tighter
anticyclonic loop occurring during the forecast period, similar to
the current and previous runs of the ECMWF model. As result, the
official NHC forecast is west of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to a blend of the TCVA, TVCX, and HCCA consensus models.

There is no significant change to the previous forecast or
reasoning. Due to the tighter loop that Lee is expected to make
within the col region between an upper-level low to the south and a
mid-latitude trough to the north, the deep-layer vertical wind shear
is now forecast to remain less than 10 kt throughout the forecast
period. Since the small cyclone will remain over SSTs near 27.5 C
within a region of below-average upper-level temperatures, strong
instability should persist for the next 4 days. The only inhibiting
factor during that time will continue to be occasional intrusions of
very dry mid-level air that will temporarily disrupt the inner-core
convection. By 120 hours, gradual weakening is expected to begin
due to increasing westerly shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to a blend
of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 32.1N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 32.3N  49.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 32.2N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 31.8N  48.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 31.1N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 30.5N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 31.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 32.4N  51.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 232036
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Lee Graphics


Tropical Storm Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 20:40:51 GMT

Tropical Storm Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 21:22:23 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23
 the center of Maria was located near 26.3, -72.5
 with movement NNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 950 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 31

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232047
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 72.5 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a turn toward
the north is expected by tonight.   A northward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast to then continue through
Monday.  On the forecast track, Maria will move away from the
Bahamas and offshore of the southeastern coast of the United
States.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening trend is expected to
begin late Sunday or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

The minimum central pressure from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane is
950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Sunday.  Swells
also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 31

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 232046
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.  TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  72.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......210NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  72.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  72.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.6N  72.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.1N  73.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.1N  73.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.1N  73.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 32.9N  73.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N  72.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 232048
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Maria's eye became cloud filled again today, although convective
cloud tops have been cooling within the eyewall during the past
couple of hours.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane conducting a
research mission has not yet sampled the entire circulation, but
they did report that the central pressure had fallen by a couple of
millibars.  In addition, a Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched
by the plane has been measuring winds of 120-125 kt at altitudes
of 1200-1300 ft, which supports maximum surface winds of 100 kt.

The initial motion remains north-northwestward, or 345/8 kt, but
Maria is expected to turn northward by this evening or overnight
while moving between a mid-level high near Bermuda and a cut-off low
over the northeastern Gulf coast.  A blocking ridge sliding eastward
over the northeastern U.S. should cause Maria to slow down to a
forward motion of 5 kt or less beginning in about 36 hours, lasting
through the end of the forecast period.  The track models appear to
have stabilized for the moment, with this being the first cycle in
about a day where they have not shown a significant westward shift.
Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged
from the previous forecast during the first 3 days.  The day 4 point
was shifted a little closer to the North Carolina coast to be closer
to the consensus aids and the Florida State Superensemble, and all
the models indicate that a northeastward motion away from the coast
should begin by day 5.

Vertical shear will remain relatively low over Maria for the next
several days, and the hurricane will be moving over warm waters at
least for the next 3 days.  However, the depth of the thermocline
does become more shallow, with oceanic heat content values steadily
decreasing over the next 36 hours.  With Maria expected to slow
down, upwelling of colder water becomes a greater factor, and that
could modulate the hurricane's intensity during the next several
days.  Maria also could still move over Jose's cold wake in 4-5
days, which would likely cause additional weakening.  The NHC
intensity forecast remains just above the intensity consensus,
however it should be noted that the normally skillful HCCA model is
toward the lower end of the guidance suite.  It therefore wouldn't
be surprising if Maria weakened more than shown in the official
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast,
and it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week.  Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday.  These swells will likely
cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of
next week.  For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 26.3N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 27.6N  72.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 29.1N  73.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 30.1N  73.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 31.1N  73.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 32.9N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 34.5N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 35.0N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 232047
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   6(22)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   6(25)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)   7(29)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   7(31)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  17(26)   8(34)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  17(30)   8(38)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   5(23)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  24(31)  18(49)   8(57)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   3(16)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  17(21)  13(34)   6(40)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  21(28)  13(41)   7(48)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  20(26)  12(38)   7(45)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   9(27)   6(33)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   8(23)   5(28)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   7(23)   5(28)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   4(21)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   3(18)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 20:52:39 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 21:28:43 GMT